Chapter 7 The End of the Xi Jinping Era

First, the end of Xi Jinping
 
My view is that there are several possibilities: First, take control of military power and retire to the background. Second is to be deposed as Professor Cai Xia has said. Ren Zhiang has said that the reformist faction of the CCP will force the palace to make another arrest of the Gang of Four and make them surrender their power. Third, it will die in an unnatural way. Fourth, Xi Jinping has been in power for a long time.
 
As far as the current situation is concerned, it is more likely that Xi Jinping will remain in power at the 20th National Congress. But even if Xi stays in power, the first three possibilities cannot be ruled out afterwards. Even if Xi stays in power for another 20 years, he will eventually grow old and be caught in the succession crisis. The longer Xi stays in power, the sooner the CCP will collapse.
 
Second, the end of the Chinese Communist Party
 
According to Professor Feng Chongyi, there is no Red Third Generation in the Party State and the totalitarian Party State cannot be passed down to the Red Third Generation. No matter how much the Red Second Generation tosses and turns, there is no precedent so far for a revolutionary party to reach eighty years of continuous rule after violently seizing power and implementing one-party dictatorship. Among the longest-running parties, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union ruled for 74 years, from the successful coup in 1917 to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991; the Kuomintang of China ruled for 72 years from 1928, when it unified the country, to 2000, when it went out of power in the first political party rotation of the Republic of China. The Korean Workers’ Party came to power in 1948 and the Chinese Communist Party came to power in 1949. Although these two parties are still surviving, they have little chance to break the “70-year limit”.
 
Cai Xia believes that the Chinese Communist Party is not an ironclad system. She has worked in the Party school system since 1986 and from her more than 30 years of contact with senior Chinese Communist Party officials, at least 60-70% of the senior Chinese Communist Party officials are aware of the progress of modern world civilization. They understand that only a democratic and constitutional government can provide China with long-term stability, human rights, dignity and personal security. The educated people in the CCP recognize the goodwill of the United States.
 
The CCP may look powerful but this modified neo-totalitarian Stalinist dictatorship is quite weak inside. The CCP has the ambition of a dragon but it is only a paper dragon. Under certain circumstances, there are many factors that can lead to unexpected and sudden changes, or even the collapse of the regime. She believes these factors include the unsustainability of the economic model such as high levels of debt; the inherent and insurmountable contradictions between its false and pompous ideological propaganda and the reality; its conflicting dual-track system of distribution between the market and the state; its growing disparity between the rich and the poor; its ongoing corruption and its intense infighting over succession to the top. Xi’s excessive suspicion and narrow-minded suspicion have led to a constant purge of dissidents within the CCP which has led to an extreme sense of insecurity among middle and senior officials within the CCP to the point where everyone is at risk.
 
Third, China Splits
 
Once the CCP collapses, the possibility of a split in China is high. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia will all demand independence. This is the evil of the 70-year rule of the CCP and the longer the CCP stays in power, the more likely it is to split up, even if it becomes inevitable.
 
The above is my analysis of the question “What is Xi Jinping up to”? Since the Xi era is still evolving, my analysis is only one perspective and is not comprehensive. I hope that more scholars will think more deeply about this issue because Xi Jinping’s problem is not just about his personal and family fate but about the fate of China and the future of the Chinese nation.