By 2011, China’s urban population had reached 51%, totaling 690 million people. Among them, 200 million were migrant workers living in cities but still officially registered (hukou) in rural areas. This means the truly permanent urban population was about 36%. Still, compared with 1978, the urban population share increased by 18% over 33 years—essentially doubling—a very rapid pace. This level of urbanization roughly aligns with the needs of industrial development.

However, there is currently a push for “accelerated urbanization.” A report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reportedly suggests that in the next 20 years, 500 million rural residents should become urban citizens. This would be an extremely large-scale leap. Such a plan is artificial, not based on the natural economic-driven urbanization process, but instead imposed through administrative measures—essentially a “planned urbanization,” reflecting remnants of China’s old planned economy and contrary to market principles.

Rapid, forced urbanization inevitably increases pressure on cities, creating more urban poor and unemployment, exacerbating water shortages, traffic congestion, and overloading schools and social infrastructure. Meanwhile, the main beneficiaries are local governments through “land finance” and real estate developers profiting from higher urban land values.

For comparison, the U.S. took about 100 years—from the 1810s to the 1920s—to industrialize and reach a 51% urban population, with 49% still rural. China cannot realistically relocate 500 million farmers to cities in just 20 years.

Urbanization should occur gradually and naturally in line with economic development. The old Chinese proverb “拔苗助长” (“pulling seedlings to help them grow”) warns against forcing growth unnaturally: if the seedling is pulled up too quickly, it will wither. Similarly, forcibly uprooting rural residents and moving them into cities without sufficient jobs and infrastructure will risk the same outcome—failure rather than progress.