Afterword: Comparing China-India and China-U.S. Gaps


To broaden the perspective, we can add a comparison between the China-India gap and the China-U.S. gap.

Based on the latest data (IMF, World Bank, as of June 25, 2025), let us examine nominal GDP and PPP GDP (Purchasing Power Parity, reflecting domestic purchasing power) in structural terms:

Nominal GDP:
China: approximately $19.53 trillion (2nd in the world)
India: approximately $4.27 trillion (5th in the world)
Gap: China’s nominal GDP is 4.57 times India’s (19.53 ÷ 4.27)

PPP GDP:
China: approximately $39.44 trillion international dollars (1st globally)
India: approximately $17.36 trillion international dollars (3rd globally)
Gap: China’s PPP GDP is 2.27 times India’s (39.44 ÷ 17.36)

Per capita GDP:
China: nominal ~$13,870, PPP ~$24,569 international dollars
India: nominal ~$2,940, PPP ~$9,160 international dollars
Gap: nominally China is 4.72 times India; PPP basis 2.68 times

Structural characteristics:

China: export-oriented ($4 trillion exports, world’s largest), strong manufacturing (30% of global share), technological autonomy (AI patents 50%)

India: driven by domestic demand, rising services (IT and BPO 50% of GDP) and emerging manufacturing (electronics, pharmaceuticals), but reliant on Chinese components (trade deficit $70 billion)

Gap-narrowing potential:
India’s demographic dividend (young workforce), low costs (labor $300/month vs. China $1,000/month), and English proficiency suggest that, with accelerated infrastructure and education reforms, nominal GDP could reach $6.5–7 trillion by 2030, narrowing the gap.

China-U.S. Gap (2024)

Nominal GDP:
U.S.: approximately $30.34 trillion (1st globally)
China: approximately $19.53 trillion (2nd globally)
Gap: U.S. nominal GDP is 1.55 times China’s (30.34 ÷ 19.53)

PPP GDP:
U.S.: approximately $30.34 trillion international dollars (2nd globally)
China: approximately $39.44 trillion international dollars (1st globally)
Gap: China’s PPP GDP is 1.3 times U.S.’s (39.44 ÷ 30.34)

Per capita GDP:
U.S.: nominal ~$85,370, PPP ~$85,370 (USD standard, nominal ≈ PPP)
China: nominal ~$13,870, PPP ~$24,569
Gap: nominally U.S. is 6.15 times China; PPP basis 3.47 times

Structural characteristics:

U.S.: technological innovation (AI, semiconductor leadership), financial center (dollar hegemony), strong consumer market, military spending $736 billion (1st globally)

China: strong manufacturing and infrastructure, export-driven, military spending $296 billion (2nd), but innovation gap (U.S. R&D 3.5% of GDP vs. China 2.4%)

Gap-narrowing potential:
China’s PPP GDP already exceeds the U.S.; nominal GDP is expected to catch up by 2030 (~$28 trillion vs. U.S. $35 trillion).

Economic structure:
China: strong in manufacturing and exports
India: services and emerging manufacturing, reliant on Chinese components
U.S.: innovation and finance-led
China: manufacturing and infrastructure-led

Gap-narrowing potential:
India: demographic dividend and low costs; nominal GDP could reach $7 trillion by 2030 (gap reduced to 3x)
China: nominal GDP may match U.S. by 2030; PPP already ahead

Geopolitical impact:
China-India: competition (Quad vs. Belt & Road), border disputes limit cooperation
China-U.S.: competition (Indo-Pacific strategy vs. Belt & Road), no territorial disputes

Soft power:
India: strong in yoga and Bollywood; China leads in infrastructure diplomacy
U.S.: Hollywood and global brands strong; China’s cultural export is weaker

Similarities and differences

Similarities:

Economic gaps significant: Both China-India and China-U.S. show large disparities in nominal GDP and per capita GDP, reflecting developing (India) vs. developed (U.S.) nations’ challenges for China.

PPP narrows the gap: Under PPP, China-India and China-U.S. gaps are smaller (2.27x vs. 0.77x), showing domestic purchasing power underestimates nominal GDP.

Competitive fields: China-India (supply chain, geopolitics), China-U.S. (technology, global influence) both compete in global influence across military, diplomacy, and soft power.

Future trend: Gaps are narrowing. India’s nominal GDP may reach $7 trillion by 2030 (gap 3x), China’s nominal GDP may match U.S. by 2030.

Differences:

Economic stage: China-India reflects developing country catch-up (India ~20 years behind China); China-U.S. reflects an emerging power (China) challenging global hegemony (U.S.).

Geopolitical tension: China-India has border disputes (partial progress in Ladakh 2024) affecting cooperation; China-U.S. competition is global (trade war, tech restrictions) without territorial conflict.

Summary:
The China-India gap (nominal 4.57x, PPP 2.27x) is larger than the China-U.S. gap (nominal 1.55x, PPP 0.77x), reflecting India’s more pronounced lag behind China, similar to a developing country challenging an emerging power. The China-U.S. gap is smaller, as China’s economy and technology already approach the U.S., with PPP advantage. Both involve competition (economy, geopolitics, soft power), but China-India is more affected by regional tensions, whereas China-U.S. focuses on global hegemony.