Section I India as the World’s Most Populous Country: Data and Projected Growth Trends

In 2023, India surpassed China with a population of 1.41 billion, becoming the world’s most populous nation—a milestone that highlights its rising economic and geopolitical potential. According to the United Nations Population Division’s 2024 report, India’s population is expected to reach 1.46 billion by 2030 and 1.67 billion by 2050, before stabilizing thereafter. This immense population size provides both a vast labor force and a massive consumer market, granting India unique advantages in global economic competition.

As of 2025, India’s demographic structure remains strikingly young: more than half of its citizens—over 750 million—are under age 30, and the average age is 28, far below China’s 38 and the United States’ 40. The working-age population (15–64) accounts for 67% (roughly 945 million people), projected to reach 1 billion by 2035 and peak at 1.02 billion in 2040. Urbanization is accelerating: 36% of the population lived in cities in 2024, projected to reach 40% by 2030 and 50% by 2050. Although India’s sex ratio remains slightly skewed at 1.08:1, women—numbering roughly 680 million—represent large untapped economic potential.

Population growth continues to slow, falling from 1.6% in 2000 to 0.8% in 2024, yet remains higher than China (−0.1%) and the U.S. (0.4%). The total fertility rate declined from 3.4 in 1990 to 2.0 in 2024. Northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar maintain higher fertility (around 2.5), while Kerala and other southern states have fallen to 1.5. The UN projects demographic stabilization around 2050. India’s youthful structure will continue generating a demographic dividend for 20–30 years, with working-age adults far outnumbering dependents.

This population scale powers India’s rise as the world’s largest consumer market. The retail sector reached USD 1.2 trillion in 2024 and is expected to hit USD 2 trillion by 2030, attracting major multinationals such as Apple and Walmart. Yet challenges remain: 200 million people still live below the poverty line; rural healthcare coverage is only 70%; and urban slums house 100 million residents. The 2024–25 Union Budget raised education spending by 8% to INR 1.48 trillion to address these structural pressures.

Managed effectively, India’s demographic strength will fuel long-term economic expansion, though success requires narrowing the rural–urban divide, increasing female labor participation, and addressing environmental vulnerabilities. If successful, population could become India’s core strategic asset on its path toward becoming a global superpower.

Section II The Massive Young Workforce and Its Potential Contribution to Economic Growth

India’s vast young workforce is its most powerful driver of economic growth. In 2025, 450 million Indians were aged 15–29—32% of the total population—and this number is expected to remain above 400 million through 2035. This youth cohort offers enormous potential for manufacturing, services, and innovation-led development.

In 2024, India had a working-age population of 945 million, with a labor-force participation rate of 49.6% (73% for men, only 18.6% for women). The resulting labor force of 470 million is projected to grow to 550 million by 2030 and 600 million by 2040. Urban labor, concentrated in IT, finance, and manufacturing, numbers around 170 million; rural labor, mostly in agriculture and informal jobs, totals roughly 300 million. Informal employment accounted for 88% of all jobs in 2024.

Youth are central to India’s economic expansion. In 2024, the IT and BPO sectors employed 5 million workers and generated USD 200 billion in exports—8% of GDP. Manufacturing revived under the “Make in India” initiative: electronics manufacturing grew 15% in 2024 and employed 2 million workers. Foxconn’s Tamil Nadu facility alone created 50,000 jobs and produced 10% of the world’s iPhones. Meanwhile, young consumers drive 60% of India’s retail spending.

India’s start-up ecosystem—third largest globally, with 120,000 start-ups in 2024—reflects youth-driven innovation. Bengaluru has produced numerous unicorns, including Byju’s and Ola. Smartphone penetration (500 million users) supports rapid fintech and e-commerce growth.

Challenges persist: female participation remains extremely low; education quality varies widely; and only 20% of workers have formal training. Automation is an emerging threat, displacing 100,000 low-skilled jobs in 2024 and potentially affecting 5 million by 2030. Government initiatives such as “Skill India” seek to train 100 million people by 2030. Raising female participation to 40% could significantly expand economic output.

If India successfully enhances skills, employment, and inclusion, its workforce could sustain annual GDP growth of 7% or more, powering its rise on the global stage.

Section III The Keys to Unlocking the Demographic Dividend: Education, Skills, and Job Creation

India’s demographic dividend represents an extraordinary opportunity, but its realization depends on deep improvements in education, skills development, and job creation. With working-age adults constituting 67% of the population in 2024—and projected to reach 68% by 2035—the next two decades form a critical developmental window.

Education remains the foundation. India’s literacy rate reached 78% in 2024—70% in rural areas and 85% in cities—still below global competitors. Higher-education enrollment stands at just 30%. Learning quality is uneven: the 2023 ASER report found that half of rural fifth graders could not read a second-grade text. The 2020 National Education Policy aims to raise high-school enrollment to 90% and university enrollment to 50% by 2030. The federal education budget prioritizes digital access and rural improvements. Edtech initiatives such as Byju’s, serving 200 million students, help reduce learning inequalities.

Skill shortages pose a major barrier. Only 20% of the workforce has formal skills training. “Skill India” trained 20 million people in 2024, with a target of 100 million by 2030. Corporations like Tata and Infosys contribute significant training capacity. However, rural and female participation in skill programs remains low. Government plans aim to raise women’s share in skills training to 30% by 2030.

India must generate at least 200 million new jobs by 2035. In 2024, informal work dominated employment. Manufacturing added 3 million new jobs under “Make in India,” and the IT–BPO sector added 500,000. Start-ups employed 1 million people, projected to reach 5 million by 2030. Automation threatens many low-skilled roles, pushing policymakers to promote high-skilled, innovation-based jobs through incentives and the “Startup India” fund.

Persistent challenges include rural–urban education disparities, skill mismatches, and cultural barriers limiting women’s participation. The Indian government plans USD 200 billion in education and training investment by 2030 and major urban development initiatives to expand job opportunities. If successful, India could maintain 7% annual GDP growth; if not, unemployment may rise and create social instability. Aligning education and employment is crucial to transforming the demographic dividend into national strength.

Section IV A Comparative Analysis of India’s Youthful Structure and China’s Aging Population

India’s youthful population contrasts sharply with China’s rapidly aging demographic profile, shaping divergent economic trajectories and influencing India’s likelihood of surpassing China in the coming decades.

By 2025, India’s population reached 1.41 billion with an average age of 28; the working-age share was 67%. China’s 1.40 billion population had an average age of 38, with the working-age share at 60% and seniors (65+) at 15%, projected to rise to 20% by 2035. India’s population growth rate in 2024 was 0.8%, compared with China’s decline of −0.1%. India’s fertility was 2.0; China’s was 1.2. India’s working-age population will peak around 2040; China’s peaked in 2015 and has since been shrinking.

India’s youthful workforce supports robust growth—GDP expanded 7.0% in 2024 and is projected to maintain 6–7% through 2035. China’s GDP grew 4.8% in 2024 and may slow to 4% or less due to demographic pressures. Labor costs in China are three times higher than in India, affecting manufacturing competitiveness. Meanwhile, India’s consumer market grows rapidly, while China’s demand increasingly stagnates.

Both countries face social challenges: India struggles with youth unemployment and education quality, while China faces rising pension burdens and healthcare costs. China’s social safety net is more comprehensive, while India lags behind, especially in rural areas. Moreover, India’s female labor-force participation (18.6%) remains significantly below China’s 60%.

Looking ahead, India’s demographic dividend will remain strong for 10–15 more years. With progress in literacy, skill development, and infrastructure—combined with cultural soft power in global media and wellness industries—India could approach a USD 20 trillion economy (PPP) by 2035. China’s economy may slow but remain larger. Still, India’s population-driven dynamism could facilitate global leadership by the 2040s if educational and employment reforms succeed.