Chapter 12: Reassessing Yuan Shikai — Two Great Errors: Toppling the Qing and Proclaiming Himself Emperor

Yuan Shikai (1859–1916) was a capable statesman. He forced the Qing emperor to abdicate, became the first President of the Republic of China, and not long afterward proclaimed himself emperor, only to be denounced and compelled to abandon the throne. Historically, judgments of Yuan have been overwhelmingly negative; the Chinese Communist Party vilified him as a “traitor who stole the state.” Since the 1980s, however, academic circles on the mainland have tended toward more pluralistic and comparatively objective assessments, acknowledging his contributions to reform. Taiwan, by contrast, has largely maintained a negative view. Overall, Yuan Shikai committed two great errors: first, forcing the Qing emperor to abdicate; second, proclaiming himself emperor. One mistake compounded another, fracturing the country and causing it to fall apart, allowing the Communists to exploit the chaos and bringing about a century-long national calamity.

I. Failing the Provincial Examinations, Making His Mark in Korea

Yuan Shikai was born in 1859 in Xiangcheng, Henan, into a prominent local family; his father was a local strongman. From an early age, Yuan loved martial arts and military strategy, once declaring, “If I could command a hundred thousand elite troops, I could roam the world at will.” This reveals his youthful ambition. Yuan failed the provincial examinations at ages seventeen and twenty, angrily burned his poems and essays, and resolved to devote himself to military service. Yet at age twenty-three he was still unwilling to give up and attempted the examination once more to obtain the xiucai degree. Unexpectedly, in that same year (1882), an upheaval broke out in Korea, altering the course of his life.

That year, Yuan crossed to Korea with Wu Changqing’s forces, leading a Qing unit with resolve and bravery, charging at the front and killing dozens of mutineers. The mutiny was quickly suppressed. Wu Changqing reported to the Qing court that Yuan “maintained strict discipline, managed deployments skillfully, pressed forward to attack and suppress, and was exceptionally brave.” At just twenty-three, Yuan was stationed in Korea as “Assistant Director of Korean Military Affairs,” helping train new troops and opening the first chapter of his career in military modernization.

II. Repulsing Japanese Troops, Winning Li Hongzhang’s Favor

In 1884, the Korean “Enlightenment Party” launched a coup, and Japanese troops stationed in Korea took advantage of the situation. Yuan Shikai commanded Qing forces to repel the Japanese, preserving Qing suzerainty over Korea and earning the attention of Li Hongzhang. However, he was attacked out of jealousy by colleagues, accused of “recklessly provoking border conflicts” and “misappropriating military funds.” Yuan returned to China in early 1885 and remained idle at home for a time. With Li Hongzhang’s backing, however, he returned to Korea in October of the same year, appointed “Resident Minister for Korea in Charge of Diplomatic and Commercial Affairs,” a post equivalent to a third-rank official, effectively influencing Korean politics. Domestically he reformed administration; externally he managed diplomacy, strengthening the tributary relationship between Qing China and Korea.

In January 1888, dissatisfied with Yuan’s interference in internal affairs, the Korean king requested his recall, but Li Hongzhang overruled objections and allowed Yuan to remain. In February 1890, Li again praised Yuan as “blooded and loyal, talented and perceptive, able to hold the overall situation, bearing burdens alone.” During his twelve years in Korea, Yuan could be excessive and rough, but he effectively checked Japanese and Russian penetration.

In 1894, the Donghak Peasant Uprising erupted in Korea, and Japanese forces rapidly deployed. Before the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War, Yuan was forced back to Tianjin in July; in August he was ordered to the Liaodong front to assist with logistics and regrouping defeated troops. Witnessing the disastrous defeat of Qing forces, he conceived the idea of training troops according to Western methods, soon beginning a new phase at Xiaozhan.

In June 1895, Li Hongzhang, Liu Kunyi, and others memorialized the throne recommending Yuan. The Guangxu Emperor promptly summoned him to Beijing. In August, Yuan submitted a memorial of ten thousand words outlining reform proposals: nine articles on talent cultivation, nine on finance, twelve on military training, four on diplomacy, and a draft charter for a new army. In December, Guangxu ordered Yuan to oversee the training of the newly built army. Yuan formally took charge at Xiaozhan near Tianjin, beginning Western-style training. At the same time, he joined Kang Youwei and Liang Qichao’s “Society for the Study of Strength,” participating in the Reform Movement.

III. Entrusted by Guangxu, Training the New Army at Xiaozhan, Tianjin

At Xiaozhan, Yuan recruited and trained 8,000 new troops, hired more than a dozen German officers as instructors, and selected over a hundred students from the Tianjin Military Academy to serve as officers, cultivating loyal subordinates. Xu Shichang, Duan Qirui, Feng Guozhang, Wang Shizhen, Cao Kun, Zhang Xun, and others all became founding figures of Yuan’s Beiyang faction.

In 1897, Yuan was promoted to Judicial Commissioner of Zhili, while continuing to oversee training at Xiaozhan. In 1898 he was promoted again to Right Vice Minister of Works. During the Hundred Days’ Reform that year, Kang Youwei, viewing Empress Dowager Cixi as the chief obstacle, sent Tan Sitong to urge Yuan to raise troops to “surround the imperial gardens and seize the Empress Dowager.” To protect himself, Yuan informed Ronglu. He thereby gained further trust from the Qing court. In 1899 he was appointed Governor of Shandong, and the new army was redeployed there.

At that time, the Boxer movement caused unrest in Shandong. Yuan defined the Boxers as a “heterodox cult” and suppressed them forcefully. In Beijing, however, Cixi indulged the Boxers in attacking foreign legations, provoking the 1900 invasion by the Eight-Nation Alliance. Yuan maintained stability in Shandong and joined Li Hongzhang and Zhang Zhidong in the “Mutual Protection of the Southeast,” sparing the region from war.

IV. Suppressing the Boxers in Shandong

After Li Hongzhang’s death in November 1901, Yuan was appointed Governor-General of Zhili and Minister of Beiyang, becoming the most powerful figure of the time.

In 1901, Yuan founded the Shandong Provincial College (today’s Shandong University). In 1902 he organized and trained the Beiyang Army in Baoding, Hebei. In 1903 he established a military academy in Beijing, hiring large numbers of Japanese officers as instructors. By 1905, six Beiyang divisions had been formed, each numbering 12,500 men. Except for the First Division, commanded by Manchu nobles, the other five were Yuan’s direct forces. Yuan concurrently served as Superintendent of Telegraph Administration, Superintendent of Railways, and Minister for Treaty Negotiations, promoting New Policies: abolishing the civil service examinations, establishing schools, and developing industry. China’s first modern police force was established in Tianjin, and plans were laid for the first independently built railway, the Beijing–Zhangjiakou line.

In 1907, Yuan was transferred from Beiyang to Beijing to serve as Grand Councillor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, becoming a key central figure.

V. Suppressing the Xinhai Revolution, Returning to Power

In November 1908, both the Guangxu Emperor and Empress Dowager Cixi died. The young Puyi ascended the throne, with his father Zaifeng as Prince Regent. Harboring resentment, Zaifeng dismissed Yuan from office, and Yuan returned to Henan, claiming illness. In October 1911, the Xinhai Revolution broke out. Zaifeng ordered the Minister of War, Yinchang, to lead troops south to suppress it, but Yinchang failed to command the Beiyang Army effectively. Court opinion concluded that “only Yuan can handle the situation,” and Zaifeng had no choice but to recall him.

Yuan did not rush to suppress the revolution. While negotiating peace with the southern revolutionaries, his forces captured Hankou and Hanyang in November. In December, Sun Yat-sen was elected Provisional President in Nanjing, but declared that if Yuan forced the Qing emperor to abdicate, Yuan would be made President.

In January 1912, at Yuan’s behest, Beiyang generals telegraphed the Qing court urging princes and ministers to donate private wealth to save the state. He also orchestrated the “Telegram of Fifty Beiyang Generals Petitioning for a Republic.” Soon after, Duan Qirui issued a “Second Petition for a Republic,” declaring that he would “lead the entire army into Beijing to explain the stakes to the princes,” a direct military threat. On January 16, an assassination attempt on Yuan in Beijing killed ten members of his guard. Sun Yat-sen then proposed the “Five Conditions” in Nanjing, seeking to consolidate his position as Provisional President.

VI. Forcing the Qing Emperor to Abdicate; Empress Dowager Longyu Wept on the Spot

Yuan applied both soft and hard tactics to pressure Empress Dowager Longyu. Kneeling before her, he urged acceptance of the “Articles of Favorable Treatment of the Qing House,” granting the imperial family four million silver dollars annually from the state treasury. He also threatened her with the fate of France’s King Louis XVI, sent to the guillotine by revolutionaries, while colluding with Sun Yat-sen’s side to accelerate the abdication.

On December 26, 1911, under Yuan’s direction, Duan Qirui and fifty Beiyang generals issued the “Petition for a Republic,” pressing the Empress Dowager. Soon after, Duan issued a second telegram explicitly threatening military force. In December 1912, Longyu met Yuan in the Hall of Mental Cultivation for an hour. Yuan presented the “Edict of Abdication,” and before she could finish reading it, tears streamed down her face.

On December 28, 1911, Longyu convened Yuan, princes, and senior ministers to deliberate state affairs. She concluded: “You all say you have no ideas. I leave everything to you. Even if it goes badly, I will not blame you.” She then burst into tears, joined by Yuan and the assembled nobles. Afterward, she said, “So long as the realm is at peace.”

On February 12, 1912, the abdication was announced, and power was transferred to a provisional republican government organized by Yuan. On February 15, the Nanjing conference formally elected Yuan Provisional President, requiring him to assume office in Nanjing. Yuan remained in Beijing, refusing to move south, and disputes over cabinet formation continued. In August, Sun Yat-sen and Huang Xing traveled north to meet Yuan, staying more than twenty days and holding thirteen meetings. Disputes were largely resolved. Sun announced his intention to focus on railway construction, leaving parliamentary politics to Song Jiaoren.

In March 1913, Song Jiaoren was assassinated at Shanghai’s East Station. Sun Yat-sen issued a declaration to oppose Yuan, but Huang Xing opposed armed action. After three months of organization, Sun launched the “Second Revolution” in July, which was suppressed by Beiyang forces. By September, Nanjing fell, and Sun, Huang, and others fled to Japan.

VII. Empress Dowager Longyu Died the Following Year; Yuan Wore Mourning

Empress Dowager Longyu, gentle and weak in temperament, could not let go of her grief and fell ill with melancholy. She died on February 22 of the following year, at the age of forty-five. At her death, she looked at the seven-year-old Emperor Puyi and said: “Born into an imperial house, you understand nothing, yet the state has fallen and your mother has died. Bewildered, you know nothing. The time has come for me to leave you. On ditches and roads ahead, you must manage on your own.”

Yuan Shikai, stirred by conscience, personally wore a black armband. Civil and military officials mourned together; flags nationwide were flown at half-mast, mourning lasted three days, and officials wore mourning for twenty-seven days. Memorial meetings were held in Changchun, Liaoyang, and elsewhere. On March 19, a national memorial service was held at the Taihe Gate Square in Beijing, attended by more than 50,000 people. A banner reading “A Yao and Shun Among Women” hung in the hall. Honor guards in Qing mourning dress and modern military uniforms attended. Plans were made for a bronze statue of the Empress Dowager; foreign legations lowered flags. The funeral procession used a ninety-six-man imperial bier and the special train once used by Empress Dowager Cixi.

VIII. Defeating Sun Yat-sen’s Second Revolution

After Song Jiaoren’s assassination, revolutionaries believed Yuan to be the幕后 mastermind; Yuan denied it. The assassin, Wu Shiying, was a member of the Gongjin Society aligned with the Nationalist camp, leading some opinion to suspect a Sun faction plot. The Song case remains a historical mystery.

In 1914, World War I broke out. Japan, citing the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, sent troops to seize Germany’s concessions in Qingdao and along the Jiaoji Railway, and took the opportunity to present the “Twenty-One Demands” tied to loans. After more than twenty negotiations over three months in 1915, Yuan’s government was forced to make concessions, minimizing losses of Chinese rights and avoiding war.

In 1915, Beijing’s political situation grew unstable, and debate over the form of government surfaced. In August, American adviser Frank Goodnow published Republicanism and Monarchy, favoring monarchy over republicanism and warning of chaos from presidential succession. Yang Du and others formed the Society for National Stability; in September, Liang Shiyi established a national petition alliance. In October, eighty-three petitions from the provinces requested a change in the system. In December, the Council of State unanimously approved a constitutional monarchy. On December 12, Yuan announced that 1916 would be the first year of the Hongxian era, preparing to ascend the throne—this was the “proclamation of emperorship,” with “Hongxian” meaning “the grand promulgation of the constitution.”

IX. The Imperial Attempt Failed After Three Months

On December 25, 1915, Cai E, Tang Jiyao, and others telegraphed opposition to Yuan’s emperorship and declared Yunnan independent, launching the National Protection Movement. Yuan sent troops to suppress it, with mixed results. In March 1916, Feng Guozhang and five generals called on the provinces to abolish the monarchy. On March 22, under internal and external pressure, Yuan announced the cancellation of the imperial system, and the Chinese Empire collapsed before it began.

Afterward, Yuan reproached himself to confidants: “I was confused; the fault is mine alone. Only today do I know that indifference to fame and achievement makes a true statesman. I am ashamed that I did not heed remonstrance. I have had much experience but little learning; the blame is mine, not others’.”

Yuan’s failed emperorship deepened his depression and illness. He died on June 6, 1916. Before his death, he wrote, “See China rebuilt as a republic,” and instructed that there be no state funeral. Nevertheless, on June 28 a grand funeral was held in Beijing; flags were lowered nationwide, schools closed, and 108 cannon shots were fired.

X. Self-Reproach at Death: Two Great Errors in a Lifetime, Repentance Worthy of Note

Yuan Shikai committed two great errors in his life. First, he should not have forced the abdication of the Qing emperor. On December 2, 1911, he wrote in The Times: “My idea is to preserve the present dynasty’s emperor and adopt a constitutional monarchy.” Yet he simultaneously pressured the court with both soft and hard tactics, using political maneuvering to force abdication so that he could become President, believing he could control the situation. He ignored Liang Qichao’s repeated warnings that overthrowing the Qing would lead to the rise of rival warlords and endless internal conflict. Even Sun Yat-sen never accepted Yuan as President and constantly sought to overthrow him.

Had Yuan not been so ambitious—had he sincerely preserved the Qing emperor, served as prime minister, controlled military and administrative power, and continued the constitutional reforms already underway—he would have been a great contributor to China’s modern transformation, making China a constitutional monarchy like Britain and placing it firmly on the path of modern democratic civilization.

By failing to take this path, Yuan destroyed the constitutional foundation of the Qing state, destabilized the nation, and faced constant pressure from Sun Yat-sen. Though difficult to control, the presidency might have been maintained, with room for gradual compromise and improvement. Instead, Yuan chose to reverse course, believing emperorship offered the most stable power. This grave error gave opponents a true pretext to unite against him. Domestically and internationally, few supported the move. After its failure, he could no longer remain President; anxiety and anger hastened his death.

With Yuan’s passing, the country became even more fragmented. Internal strife worsened, the people suffered, foreign powers took advantage, and the Communists rose, bringing a century-long disaster. “One misstep becomes eternal regret.” Yuan’s two missteps ruined not only himself but shook the foundations of the state, creating opportunities for later power-hungry figures to throw the nation into chaos. Yet Yuan was not evil by nature; he was upright and committed to reform—unlike Mao, whom Chen Boda once had denounce Yuan as a “traitor who stole the state.” In truth, the real usurper was Mao himself, whose disasters upon the nation were ten or a hundred times those of Yuan.