Chapter 23: Taiwan Must Learn from Israel to Defend Itself (Part II)

“Strategic clarity” has broken the long-standing condition of “strategic ambiguity,” but it has also introduced new challenges to the situation across the Taiwan Strait. Known for its penetrating insight into global affairs, The Economist devoted its May 1, 2021 cover to Taiwan under the headline “The Most Dangerous Place on Earth,” warning that Taiwan is rapidly departing from the ambiguous non-war, non-peace status quo it maintained with the Chinese Communist Party for the past fifty years and moving toward the brink of war. Xi Jinping is continuously testing the United States’ resolve to defend Taiwan, using the results to determine when to resort to force and annex the island.

The CCP has accelerated the development of naval capabilities aimed at attacking Taiwan. Over the past five years, China has built and commissioned 90 large warships, and Taiwan has long since lost the naval advantage it once enjoyed in the 1980s and 1990s. Today, PLA warships roaming the western Pacific outnumber U.S. warships by four to five times. The PLA already holds overwhelming superiority over Taiwan in sea, land, and air forces, supplemented by space capabilities and nuclear weapons. In late April, the CCP made a high-profile announcement in which Xi Jinping personally presided over a ceremony transferring three large warships to the navy, signaling intensified preparations for military action against Taiwan. Among them was a 40,000-ton amphibious assault ship equipped with 30 helicopters, multiple assault tanks and armored vehicles, two battalions of troops, and short-range missile launch systems—effectively equivalent to an aircraft carrier. With this, the PLA can be said to possess the equivalent of three aircraft carriers. The other vessels included a nuclear-powered submarine and a 10,000-ton-class destroyer.

Alongside military intimidation, Xi Jinping has intensified psychological and propaganda warfare to an unprecedented degree. CCP propaganda organs repeatedly proclaim that “the motherland must be unified and will inevitably be unified,” creating the sense that the arrow is already on the bowstring. The year 2022 was a decisive year for Xi’s pursuit of an assured third term. He needed tangible achievements to justify his continued rule. Otherwise, the Belt and Road Initiative had stalled, advances in the South China Sea had failed to deliver decisive results, domestic problems were piling up, and China was increasingly encircled by Western countries abroad. Without a major “victory,” what could Xi use to demonstrate his so-called “rise”? He has emboldened himself with his own invention—the narrative of “the East rising and the West declining,” a rehash of Mao Zedong’s “the East Wind prevails over the West Wind.” Having secured what he perceives as absolute military superiority, Xi is likely to gamble on launching a military attack in an attempt to swallow Taiwan in one bite as a credential for securing his third term.

Faced with the CCP’s aggressive pressure, Taiwan has no room left for ambiguity as a means of self-preservation. The only remaining options are surrender or resistance. Falling into the trap of “one country, two systems” would inevitably lead Taiwan down Hong Kong’s path—gradual total redization. The only viable path of resistance is to learn from Israel: universal mobilization, a society in which everyone is prepared to fight. Communist despotism and liberal democracy are fundamentally incompatible; this is a life-or-death struggle with no room for compromise. The CCP’s united front tactics are nothing but deceptive traps, designed ultimately to digest and consume their targets.

Can Taiwan truly stand firm by learning from Israel? Yes. Israel has stood unbroken for over seventy years. Taiwan’s population is three times that of Israel. If Israel can survive, why can’t Taiwan? The key to Israel’s resilience lies first in self-reliance—unceasing self-strengthening—where every Israeli is a fighting unit, impossible to break or crush. Second, Israel enjoys U.S. support and is not isolated internationally, deterring enemies from acting rashly. If every Taiwanese were an elite soldier, could the PLA truly establish a foothold after landing? Taiwan must learn from Israel in order to save itself. Wei Jingsheng once observed that Taiwanese society is prosperous and reluctant to fight, naively believing that war is impossible. This lack of will to fight is precisely what is encouraging Xi Jinping to take risks.

Beyond learning from Israel, Taiwan must also rely on the United States without reservation in order to remain undefeated. From 1949 to early 1950, the United States did indeed announce that it was abandoning Taiwan. Despite lacking a navy, Mao Zedong was already preparing to launch an all-out invasion using thousands of vessels and human-wave tactics to overwhelm the island. Had the Korean War not broken out—and had the United States not dispatched the Seventh Fleet to defend Taiwan—Taiwan would have long since been swallowed by the CCP.

In 1971, President Nixon’s grave mistake caused Taiwan to lose its seat at the United Nations, reducing its diplomatic allies from dozens to just over a dozen. Taiwan indeed suffered greatly on the international stage, and decades of resentment toward the United States are understandable. Nevertheless, the United States still enacted the Taiwan Relations Act and continued arms sales for Taiwan’s defense. By implementing an ambiguous policy of “one China, two realities,” Washington deterred Beijing from rashly attacking Taiwan, allowing Taiwan to survive and grow stronger.

Beginning with Nixon, the United States was deceived and misled by the CCP for decades, with Taiwan caught in the middle and bearing the consequences. The encouraging development is that around 2015, the United States awakened. Both political parties gradually recognized, after decades of deception, that the CCP is an adversary, not a friend. With the United States standing on Taiwan’s side, Taiwan’s security today rests on its strongest guarantee. The United States is now moving step by step toward restoring Taiwan’s diplomatic relationships and its position in the United Nations.

“Taiwan is the most dangerous place on Earth.” This was the headline of The Economist’s May 2021 cover story. The article stated that “Taiwan is the arena in which China and America test their strength. Although America has no treaty obligation to defend Taiwan, a Chinese attack would test America’s military power and its diplomatic and political will. If the Seventh Fleet failed to come to Taiwan’s aid, China would overnight become the dominant power in Asia. The American-led world order would collapse.”

Zhong Wen concludes: The United States and China must make greater efforts to avoid a war over Taiwan’s future. Taiwan must sweep away the muddled notion of “U.S.–China rivalry with Taiwan surviving through ambiguity,” and resolutely discard the CCP’s united front sugar-coated bullets and its “two sides of the Strait are one family” panda-style ploys. Taiwan must stand firmly with an awakened Uncle Sam. When facing communism, one must possess the spirit of the Israelis. Only by resisting courageously, as Israel has done, can Taiwan save itself. Once the PLA launches an attack, the United States will then have unquestionable justification to intervene fully and jointly defend Taiwan.