Chapter 22: Taiwan’s Fate Depends on the United States 2019 (Part II)

From 2019 to 2020, the United States adopted a much tougher stance toward the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), downgrading diplomatic engagement with Beijing while markedly strengthening support for Taiwan. There even appeared signs of a possible restoration of formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Taiwan’s future still depends on the United States. As long as the U.S. firmly opposes the CCP and is determined to transform communism, Taiwan may even regain a seat at the United Nations, resulting in the coexistence of two Chinas within the UN system. Going further, the United States could rely on Taiwan’s free and democratic forces to help reform the CCP’s authoritarian regime, pushing it toward democratic transformation and reshaping China into a democratic polity.

President Nixon’s 1972 recognition of the People’s Republic of China and denial of the Republic of China’s UN status—handing China’s seat to the CCP—was a historic mistake. Nixon justified this move as a strategic necessity to “use China to counter the Soviet Union” and to help end the Vietnam War. Yet at the time, the CCP lacked the capacity to counter the Soviets. Drawing China closer did not strengthen America’s position against the USSR, nor did the CCP play a decisive role in ending the Vietnam War.

After decades of injustice and marginalization, Taiwan has developed into a strong democratic nation with solid economic and military capabilities. Its population equals roughly three Israels or four Swedens—comparable to a medium-sized European country. The United States should unequivocally support Taiwan’s restoration of statehood and its return to the United Nations, openly acknowledging the political reality of two Chinas: the mainland and Taiwan. The U.S. should justifiably support Taiwan’s freedom and democracy, oppose the CCP’s authoritarian enslavement of the mainland, and politically back Taiwan in resisting CCP tyranny—thereby pressuring the CCP to transition swiftly toward constitutional democracy.

Taiwan’s fate, once again, depends on the United States. In 1972, President Nixon appeased Mao Zedong and abandoned Taiwan, forcing the Republic of China to withdraw from the United Nations. Taiwan’s return to the UN likewise requires firm American resolve. Today, the CCP seeks to resolve its internal contradictions through military action against Taiwan. In response, the Republic of China on Taiwan must emulate Israel—self-reliant and resilient. In the asymmetric ideological struggle between constitutional democracies and the CCP regime, Taiwan must play a frontline role rather than remain a bystander. As the first constitutional democracy established in the Chinese cultural sphere, the Republic of China stands as a beacon for the mainland Chinese people’s pursuit of freedom and democracy. This democratic lighthouse in Taiwan will illuminate the course of the Chinese nation’s great vessel.

Xi Jinping has been determined to fully absorb Hong Kong into the mainland system and to bring Taiwan under CCP control during his tenure, aiming to surpass Mao Zedong in historical stature. Xi possesses multiple tools to pressure Taiwan, including diplomatic isolation and blocking arms transfers. He may also consider a “nibbling strategy” to seize islands close to China but controlled by Taiwan. As China’s military strength grows, Beijing may judge that it can prevail in an unexpected confrontation and thus take action against Taiwan.

Amid the CCP’s increasingly aggressive posture, arguments advocating the “abandonment of Taiwan” have resurfaced. As early as March 2011, Charles Glaser, a professor of political science and international relations at George Washington University, argued in Foreign Affairs that to avoid war with China over Taiwan, the United States should abandon Taiwan and withdraw its security commitments.

More recently, Glaser reiterated this view in Foreign Affairs, asserting that the U.S. should revoke its security commitment to Taiwan to avoid war with China, since China is now stronger than it was a decade ago and “has better prospects of winning a war in the Taiwan Strait.” He also claimed that China’s leaders are increasingly provocative and more explicit in treating unification with Taiwan as an urgent goal. Glaser argues that Taiwan is not a U.S. treaty ally and “not a vital U.S. interest,” and that abandoning Taiwan would significantly reduce the risk of major war with China. If such views were to dominate U.S. policymaking, Taiwan would be in grave danger.

Zhong Wen concludes: Correcting Nixon’s historical error—reversing his reversal of truth and falsehood—is today the foremost task in opposing communism. Before leaving office, President Trump declassified America’s Pacific strategic bottom line ahead of schedule: the U.S. will not abandon the First Island Chain, and Taiwan, as its critical link, is impossible to relinquish. Any attempt by the mainland to resolve the Taiwan issue through force would amount to a decisive battle with U.S. forces in the Pacific. Launching a comprehensive political, economic, and military struggle against the CCP; supporting Taiwan in resisting CCP aggression; restoring the Republic of China; and forcing the CCP to open up, abandon communist authoritarianism, and transition to constitutional democracy—these are the United States’ paramount tasks as the global leader in finally burying communism.