Chapter 20: George W. Bush Unveils the “Communism Victims Memorial,” 2002–2008 (Part I)

George W. Bush was an anomaly among U.S. presidents. If he had been in China, he would have been an unquestionable “second-generation official” (官二代). His father, George H.W. Bush, known as “Senior Bush,” had held positions as CIA Director, U.S. Ambassador to China, and served eight years as Vice President, attending to Reagan at every turn. After Reagan, Senior Bush ascended to the presidency, multiplying his status and influence tenfold. Being president meant advantages for his family; George W. Bush was born into wealth and privilege, and though he did not inherit political office directly, his position and connections were secure. From childhood, he did not study diligently, later entering an Ivy League university thanks to family connections. His grades were poor, and he enjoyed drinking, which later caused him political trouble.

George W. Bush initially doubted his suitability for politics and dabbled in business. He first managed a baseball team, which did not perform well but sold at a good price—likely thanks to his father’s influence. In Texas, the Bush family had extensive networks. After selling the team, he went into oil. Using the same approach, he ran the oil business and sold the company at a profit. After two partially successful but profitable ventures, Bush realized business was not his forte. He retired from business and returned to the family tradition—politics.

Thus, the U.S. had a father-and-son presidency: Senior Bush and Junior Bush. Given this background, readers can anticipate what kind of president George W. Bush would become. In the 2000 election, Bush led Al Gore in Florida by fewer than 2,000 votes. Because the margin was so narrow, Florida law mandated an automatic machine recount. After the first recount, Bush’s lead decreased to fewer than 1,000 votes, with both candidates separated by just a few hundred votes. The Democratic Party, seeing a chance to reverse the outcome, requested a manual recount in several counties, alleging voter misdirection.

On December 12, the U.S. Supreme Court, by a narrow 5–4 majority, overturned the Florida Supreme Court’s ruling, requiring the state to complete a uniform statewide recount before the December 18 Electoral College vote. They did not extend the deadline, leaving just two hours to comply, effectively forcing Florida to abandon the manual recount. While the Court did not explicitly declare Bush the lawful president, this clearly biased ruling ensured that the Democratic candidate lost a “cooked duck.”

Bush’s victory in Florida also had another, less visible contributor—Jeb Bush, his younger brother, then governor of Florida. Jeb was reportedly much more capable than George W., but only one “second-generation official” could be president. Jeb contributed significantly to George W.’s Florida campaign, though whether any irregularities occurred remains unconfirmed. With a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes deciding the Electoral College, it is reasonable to infer that family influence played a critical role.

George W. Bush began his presidency with a full repudiation of Clinton-era China policy, publicly criticizing it as too soft. He advocated incorporating a tougher approach and redefining the U.S.-China “constructive strategic partnership” as one of strategic competition. If events had followed this path, China’s rise might have been delayed, and its later WTO entry may not have occurred.

However, at this critical moment, history was obstructed by a small stone, which unexpectedly altered the course of U.S.-China relations. As the Chinese saying goes, “circumstances are stronger than people”—a maxim equally applicable in international politics. Changing circumstances forced Bush to abandon his previously defined tough policy toward China.

Less than a year into his presidency, Bush faced the 9/11 terrorist attacks. At the time, he was attending an event at an elementary school in Florida. When security personnel whispered about the unfolding attacks, Bush looked confused, unsure whether to continue reading to the children or immediately leave.

“When the first plane hit the World Trade Center, I thought it was an accident. When the second plane hit, I realized America was under attack. When the third plane hit the Pentagon, that was a declaration of war against us,” Bush later recalled.

The 9/11 attacks shifted Bush’s foreign policy focus. He launched a series of counterterrorism wars. In October 2001, he initiated the war in Afghanistan, toppling the Taliban. In his January 2002 State of the Union address, he labeled certain regimes as “sponsors of terrorism,” explicitly naming Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. Speculation arose about the U.S.’s next moves against perceived terrorists, and indeed, in March 2003, he launched the Iraq War, overthrowing Saddam Hussein. Though Bush’s personal capabilities were limited, he secured a second term partly by waging these wars against Afghanistan and Iraq.

Bush’s counterterrorism focus blurred other threats. The world’s greatest communist threat was relegated behind the war on terror. China supported U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts but maintained relations with Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. Through these connections, China maintained intricate links with the so-called “Axis of Evil” or “rogue states.” Because of the U.S. counterterrorism campaign, China inadvertently became a “partner” of the U.S. During Bush’s eight years, U.S.-China relations grew increasingly close.

During the 2000 presidential campaign, Bush labeled China a “strategic competitor.” After 9/11, China extended assistance, promising support for counterterrorism. Meanwhile, Bush’s wars left the U.S. unable to contain China. The 9/11 attacks shifted the initial policy that might have treated China as an adversary, enabling a decade of rapid Chinese growth. Bush effectively inherited Clinton’s dovish approach to China, expecting that economic reform would induce political reform.