Chapter 08: George Kennan – The Soul of American Anti-Communism, 1947 (Part II)

Yu Maochun, a Chinese-American military historian, has applied George Kennan’s diplomatic thinking and strategy for confronting the Soviet Union to today’s U.S. strategy toward China. He points out that China shares land borders with fourteen countries—the highest number of any country in the world. In addition, China shares maritime boundaries in the East China Sea and the South China Sea with six or seven neighboring states. In some form, either currently or at some point in modern history, China has had border or maritime disputes with nearly all of its land and sea neighbors—an unusual phenomenon in the history of international relations.

Some of these disputes are currently dormant, but many remain active and explosive, continually threatening the outbreak of broader regional or even global war. At present, China is actively contesting land and maritime territory with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. Any one of these disputes could trigger uncontrollable military action with serious consequences for global peace and stability. Once China engages in an open conflict with any aggrieved neighboring country, anti-China forces along China’s land and maritime periphery are likely to coalesce into a stronger anti-China coalition—regardless of whether the United States participates. Achieving peace through negotiation and international law is the best way for China to extricate itself from what may be the most dangerous neighborhood diplomacy in human history.

Yu Maochun observes: “The last comparable critical moment in U.S. history occurred in 1946, when George Kennan, deeply troubled by America’s failure to understand the true motives and intentions of the Soviet Union, sent his ‘Long Telegram’ and published a version known as the ‘X Article’ the following year. In it, he clearly identified Moscow’s real ambitions for global domination and how the United States should respond. We have once again reached a moment of strategic clarification—this time concerning China, America’s new adversary in a new era.”

More interestingly, on November 2, the day before the U.S. presidential election, the White House released a collection titled “Trump on China: Putting America First.” The volume compiled speeches on China delivered by President Trump and senior officials, showcasing what the White House described as “the most significant shift in U.S. foreign policy in a generation.” The United States was no longer turning a blind eye to the behavior of the Chinese Communist Party and was “no longer keeping our criticisms behind closed doors.” These speeches were described as a key component of the Trump administration’s efforts to protect the American people. Taken together, they resembled the role played by Kennan’s 1946 Long Telegram from Moscow, which laid the intellectual foundation for America’s containment policy toward the Soviet Union.

At the same time, the White House did not wish to allow the long-deceased Kennan to overshadow its message and emphasized that the book differed from the Long Telegram in two important respects. First, the Long Telegram was the work of a single diplomat abroad, whereas this volume consisted of statements and policies articulated by the President and his top officials. Second, given China’s population size, economic strength, and historic global ambitions, the People’s Republic of China represents a more formidable competitor than the Soviet Union was at its peak.

Through these speeches, the White House sought to demonstrate that, in the face of an increasingly aggressive Beijing, President Trump would take action to protect the United States and its allies from Chinese threats. The administration also hoped to educate American citizens about the Chinese Communist Party’s threats to their livelihoods, businesses, freedoms, and values; to remind allies and partners to stand up for their own people and for shared interests and values; and to counter the propaganda apparatus that lies at the core of the CCP’s global strategy.

Think tanks were equally active. On January 28, 2021, the Atlantic Council released “The Longer Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy.” The Atlantic Council described it as “one of the deepest and most rigorous examinations to date of China’s geopolitical strategy, as well as a perceptive U.S. strategy for responding to China’s strategic ambitions.”

This 25,000-word “Longer Telegram” directly targeted CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping. It declared: “The most significant challenge facing the United States in the 21st century is the rise of an increasingly authoritarian China under Chairman and General Secretary Xi Jinping.”

Unlike his predecessors, Xi “has demonstrated an intention to project China’s authoritarian system, coercive diplomacy, and military presence far beyond its borders and across the world.” Under Xi’s leadership, China represents “a fundamental shift” for the United States, its allies, and the U.S.-led liberal international order. “Xi Jinping is no longer merely America’s problem; he poses a grave challenge to the entire democratic world.”

Roland, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, noted that Chinese leaders’ criticism of the existing international order demonstrates their firm opposition to the values on which that order was built. This is not merely about U.S. leadership within the current system; more importantly, it threatens to erode fundamental human rights, freedom of thought and expression, and self-governance worldwide.

China has been one of the principal beneficiaries of the post–World War II international order. It was under the protection of the system built and defended by the United States that China was able to rise. After benefiting from international rules through the WTO, China has grown impatient to rewrite those rules. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has stated, international rules must be written jointly by all parties rather than being the “exclusive privilege of a few countries.” “We want fairness and justice, not bullying or hegemony.” The CCP portrays the postwar international order established by the United States as a “hegemonic order” or a “small-circle order.”

In response, the U.S. Secretary of State countered that the United States does not seek to suppress other countries by maintaining a rules-based order. “China is currently the only country in the world with sufficient military, economic, and diplomatic power to undermine or challenge the existing international order.” Internally tightening repression and externally becoming increasingly assertive, China now poses a challenge to that order. “When we see countries undermining the international system, pretending that the rules we all agreed upon do not exist—or simply violating them at will—we will respond forcefully.”

George Kennan, an American diplomat who lived in the 1940s, could never have imagined that his strategic ideas would still be so influential seventy years later. The difference is that the adversary has shifted from the Soviet Union to China. It appears that the page belonging to Kennan has not yet been turned. In this sense, Fukuyama’s “end of history” has not truly arrived. The task of ending history now falls upon this generation of American leaders. The road ahead is long—let us see how President Biden will act.

Zhong Wen concludes: During Trump’s four years in office, one decision he unquestionably got right was appointing Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State. Because of his uncompromising anti-communist stance, Pompeo was labeled by the CCP as an “enemy of humanity.” Following the American tradition of political turnover, Pompeo lost his post along with Trump’s departure from office. The new Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has largely affirmed Pompeo’s China policy, acknowledging that its general direction was correct. Pompeo pursued resolute anti-communism through targeted actions. Standing behind him as a strategic adviser was the Chinese-American military historian Yu Maochun—arguably a modern-day George Kennan. His grasp of the core dynamics of U.S.–China relations has proven remarkably precise. After the new president took office, Yu continued to offer strategic counsel through the media. One can only hope that this talented scholar from Sichuan will become a key strategist and driving force in America’s effort to dismantle communism.