This chapter will shift the focus to the United States’ traditional core ally—the European Union. We will argue that, faced with the unpredictability of American politics, the inconsistency of its foreign policy (Chapter Ninety-Two), and Russia’s geopolitical adventurism (Chapter Ninety-Four), the core nations of the EU (particularly Germany and France) are forced into a painful struggle between seeking strategic autonomy and their inertial dependence on the American security umbrella. This shift by the EU is the most direct reaction to the end of American leadership and fundamentally alters the global balance of power.

First Thesis: The Roots of the Dilemma: The Dividends and End of the Post-War Order

I. The Post-War “Security Dividend” for the EU

After World War II, the prosperity of the EU (and its predecessors) was built on a clear foundation:

The American Security Umbrella: The EU entrusted military and broad security responsibilities to the U.S.-led NATO.

Economic Dividends: The EU was able to concentrate resources on social welfare and economic development, enjoying a long-term “security dividend.”

Strategic Inertia: This dependency also created strategic inertia, meaning the EU lacked a unified, robust defense and foreign policy capability.

II. The Trigger of the Dilemma: America’s Unpredictability

America’s internal rot (Chapter Ninety) and the emergence of Trumpism (Chapter Ninety-Two) completely shattered the EU’s long-standing security assumptions:

Collapse of Trust: American leaders publicly questioned NATO’s collective defense commitment, treating allies as “free-riders.” This made EU leaders realize that absolute reliance on American security was no longer a sustainable strategy.

Geopolitical Proximity: Russia’s ambition (Chapter Ninety-Four) and its invasion of Ukraine sharply increased security risks on Europe’s borders, forcing the EU to seriously confront the issue of autonomous defense.

Second Thesis: Pressures and Domains in Seeking Strategic Autonomy

III. Pressure One: The Urgent Need for Security and Defense

Security autonomy is the most urgent area in which the EU seeks transformation.

Increased Defense Spending: EU member states (especially Germany) were forced to end their long-standing policies of low defense budgets and began significantly increasing military spending to fill the massive gaps in their military capabilities.

European Defense Integration: The “European Army” or deeper European defense integration mechanisms (such as PESCO), long advocated by France, gained new momentum. The goal is to establish a capability to independently carry out regional security missions in the absence of the United States.

The Dilemma: Although the EU is making efforts, its defense systems will still require decades to truly break free from dependence on the U.S. command, control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) system.

IV. Pressure Two: Autonomy in Technology and Supply Chains

Faced with the intensifying technological competition between the United States and China, the EU is forced to seek “technological sovereignty.”

Dependence on Critical Technologies: The EU finds itself heavily dependent on the United States and Asia for semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and critical data infrastructure.

Autonomy Strategies: The EU promotes initiatives such as the European Chips Act and AI regulatory frameworks, attempting to establish domestic supply chains and manufacturing capabilities for critical technologies to reduce the risk of being “weaponized” by the United States or China.

The Dilemma: Seeking technological autonomy faces high costs, technical barriers, and competition within the internal market. The EU cannot match America’s flexibility or China’s concentrated investment in terms of innovation speed.

V. Pressure Three: Balancing Act in Diplomacy and Trade

The EU attempts to carve out an independent diplomatic path among the three major powers—the U.S., China, and Russia.

Balancing Confrontation and Cooperation: The EU must support the United States on human rights and normative issues (confronting Russia and China), but cannot completely sacrifice its enormous economic interests with China, nor completely cooperate with America’s unilateral trade wars.

Result: The EU’s stance often appears cautious, slow, and divided, which反而 gives competitors opportunities for differentiation and exploitation.

Third Thesis: Impact on the New Global Chessboard

VI. Adjustment of the Balance of Power and the Acceleration of Multipolarity

The EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy fundamentally alters the global balance of power.

A Key Driver of the “Multipolar World”: The EU’s actions prove the end of the unipolar era. An EU with an independent will will become a significant center of power in a “multipolar world,” rather than a mere appendage of the United States.

Further Erosion of American Global Leadership: The EU’s shift represents a substantive withdrawal of power from American leadership. This further dilutes America’s influence and capacity to mobilize resources in global governance.

VII. The Choice of New Alliances and Associated Risks

The EU’s struggle also creates new models of cooperation:

Increase in Temporary Coalitions: The EU increasingly tends toward forming “values-driven” temporary coalitions with countries such as Japan and India to gain leverage in global norms and trade standards against China, rather than completely relying on the United States.

Risk of Internal Division: The EU is divided on issues such as the degree of threat from Russia and economic dependence on China, which puts the goal of strategic autonomy at risk of internal political fragmentation.

VIII. Chapter Conclusion: The End of an Era

The analysis in Chapter Ninety-Five establishes the EU’s role in the era of power vacuum.

Presentation of the Core Argument: America’s unpredictability forces the EU to seek strategic autonomy in security, technology, and diplomacy. This shift by the EU is a substantive reaction to the end of American leadership, marking the dissolution of the monolithic Western alliance structure of the post-war era and accelerating the global shift toward multipolarity.

NEXT: Chapter 96: China’s Role I: Economic Expansion and Geopolitics — A Systematic Strategy to Fill the American Vacuum