This chapter will shift the perspective from domestic to international, providing an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Trump phenomenon on the global international system. We will explore how allies (particularly traditional democratic nations such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea) and adversaries (such as authoritarian states like China and Russia) viewed Trump’s presidency and his undermining of democratic norms, and how this “alarm” ultimately led to a widespread “crisis of confidence” in the American democratic system.

First Thesis: The Alarm of Democratic Allies: Trust and Alienation

I. From “Beacon” to “Warning”: The Devaluation of Democratic Values

Before Trump’s presidency, American democracy had been regarded by Western allies as a “beacon of democracy” and a “model of constitutional governance.” However, Trump’s pattern of behavior caused this image to rapidly depreciate, transforming into a “warning of democratic decline.”

Shock at the Collapse of Norms: Allies were shocked by Trump’s public attacks on the media (Chapter Thirty-Five), his questioning of judicial independence (Chapter Fifteen), and his refusal to accept election results (Chapter Thirty-Eight). These actions violated fundamental norms that allies believed democratic nations should not transgress.

The Exhaustion of Moral Capital: When the American president publicly praised dictators, criticized traditional allies, and disregarded human rights issues, the moral capital of the United States as the “leader of the free world” was exhausted. Allies began to doubt whether the United States still believed in the democratic values it espoused.

II. Allies’ Crisis of Trust and “Strategic Distancing”

Trump’s attacks on international treaties and allies (Chapter Forty-Five) directly led to a crisis of strategic trust among democratic allies.

The Collapse of Credibility: Allies realized that American foreign policy was no longer predictable and value-based, but highly transactional, emotional, and personal (Chapter Forty-Six). They had to confront a harsh reality: whether the United States would again “negate itself” in the next four years or beyond.

The Emergence of “Strategic Distancing”: To hedge against the unpredictability of future American policy, allies began to adopt “strategic distancing”:

Europe: Called for establishing “European sovereignty” to reduce dependence on American security.

Asia: Accelerated the development of regional multilateral mechanisms (such as RCEP, excluding the United States) to ensure supply chain and trade stability.

Result: Trump’s actions led to internal rifts within the global democratic camp and a decline in solidarity.

Second Thesis: The Alarm of Authoritarian Adversaries: The Enhancement of Legitimacy

III. “Democracy’s Fragility” Through the Lens of Adversaries

For authoritarian states such as China and Russia, the Trump phenomenon provided enormous propaganda opportunities and geopolitical advantages. They conducted a comprehensive “reassessment” of the American democratic system.

Propaganda as a Weapon: Authoritarian states used the Trump phenomenon, the Capitol riot (Chapter Thirty-Nine), and America’s deep polarization (Chapter Forty) as powerful evidence that “democracy is dead” or “the West is in decline.” This effectively undermined America’s legitimacy in promoting democracy internationally.

The Promotion of Institutional Superiority: Adversaries claimed that while their authoritarian systems lacked freedom, they provided “stability” and “efficiency.” Compared to America’s chaos, gridlock (Part Two), and political violence, the authoritarian model appeared to have superior advantages.

Result: Trump’s actions enhanced the legitimacy and appeal of authoritarian systems internationally, particularly among some developing nations.

IV. A Window of Geopolitical Opportunity and Strategic Dividends

Authoritarian adversaries viewed Trump’s presidency as a rare “window of opportunity.”

Filling the Power Vacuum: Due to America’s “inward contraction” and evasion of global responsibilities (Chapter Forty-Six), adversaries were able to accelerate their filling of power vacuums in international organizations and regional security affairs.

Diplomatic Exploitation: Russia actively exploited divisions within NATO, while China accelerated the establishment of systems and standards centered on itself in trade and technology. This enabled adversaries to gain significant strategic dividends without direct conflict with the United States.

Third Thesis: The Crisis of Confidence: Systemic Doubt About the American System

V. The Roots of the Crisis of Confidence: The Exposure of Institutional Failure

The global crisis of confidence in American democracy was not centered on Trump as an individual, but on whether the institutions and values underpinning American democracy had failed (Chapter Forty-Two).

The Collapse of Built-In Filtration Mechanisms: The international community observed that the highest checks and balances tools designed by the American Constitution (impeachment, Chapter Thirty-Seven), independent media, and party norms (Chapter Thirty-Six) had all failed to effectively filter or punish this “atypical actor.” This led people to doubt whether American institutions were truly indestructible.

The Irreparability of Social Division: The deep polarization of American society (Chapter Seven) and the “two poles of reality” (Chapter Thirty-Five) led international observers to conclude that this division was long-term and irreparable. A nation internally divided and continuously engaged in attrition could hardly fulfill its role as a global leader.

VI. The Transformation of Global Decision-Making: Avoiding American Risk

This crisis of confidence is prompting global decision-makers to undertake structural changes to reduce dependence on the United States and exposure to American risks.

De-Dollarization/De-Risking: Nations began discussing reducing dependence on the dollar in trade and financial settlements to avoid the risks of financial sanctions arising from domestic political turmoil in the United States.

Supply Chain Restructuring: The lessons of the trade wars (Chapter Thirty-Four) prompted corporations to shift supply chains from models highly concentrated on the United States toward “de-risking,” pursuing more dispersed and resilient supply chains.

VII. Chapter Conclusion: The Ultimate Cost of Exceptionalism

Global alarm and the crisis of confidence represent the ultimate cost of the “end of American Exceptionalism” (Chapter Forty-Five).

Irretrievable Trust: Once trust is lost, it is difficult to recover. Even after Trump left the center of power, international skepticism about American commitments has become a normalized perception.

History’s Judgment: The international community’s reassessment of the American system is a stern verdict from history on American democracy. It proves that America’s domestic political health and international leadership are inseparable: a nation fractured internally cannot effectively lead the world.

Trump’s performance as an “actor” ultimately publicly showcased the fragility and decline of American democracy on the global stage.

NEXT: Chapter 48: Historical Necessity: Trump as an Accelerator — The One Who Nails the Coffin Lid